A M.Sc. Degree on a thesis entitled: “A Multi-Component Model for Long-Term River Flow Forecasting”
As part of the successful efforts exerted by esteemed researchers, Eng. Eatemad Ahmed Hassan Mohammed Keshta, Water Resources Research Institute (WRRI) (affiliate to the National Water Research Center), has earned her M.Sc. degree in Civil Engineering (Irrigation and Hydraulics) – Faculty of Engineering, Helwan University – for the thesis entitled “A Multi-Component Model for Long-Term River Flow Forecasting”. A response-based hydrologic model was developed by this research for long-term rainfall-runoff simulations over the river basins. The model overcomes the typical difficulties in estimating infiltration and evapotranspiration parameters using a modified version of the Soil Conservation Service curve number SCS-CN method. In addition, the model simulates the surface and groundwater hydrograph components using the response unit-hydrograph approach instead of using a linear reservoir routing approach for routing surface and groundwater to the basin outlet. The model is less sensitive to groundwater infiltration parameters since groundwater is actually controlled by the surface component and not the opposite. For that reason, the model is called the SCHydro model (Surface Controlled Hydrologic model). The Model was calibrated and validated over the upper Blue Nile basin using observed flow data at Diem station for the period (1990-2009) and (2010-2017) respectively. The seasonal rainfall forecast was bias corrected using the linear correction method. Three lead-times (LT3, LT6, and the whole season (May-November)) were analyzed and assessed using the NSE, Bias%, and RSR showing the acceptable performance. However, there is an obvious bias in the forecasted flow especially at LT3. In general, the results showed that the bias corrected seasonal rainfall forecast is capable to provide a good idea about the whole flood season at the beginning of the rainy season over the basin. Further, the seasonal forecasted flow relatively captured the observed flow at Diem station in the flood years more than in the dry years. Moreover, a research paper was published summarized from this work. The paper is available at the following link:
https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/6/3/69
